The official definition of recession is when GDP growth is negative for two quarters or more. However, you can feel like you are in a recession before it has officially started because it is usually preceded by several quarters of slowing but positive growth. It feels like a recession when GDP growth slows, businesses stop expanding, employment falls, unemployment rises, and housing prices decline.
A month ago, economists in this closely watched forecast put the chance the world's richest economy would fall into recession at 40 per cent, but government data showing a contraction in hiring, slowed consumer spending and other reports pointing to sagging business activity have indicated a much more deteriorated outlook.
Among those economists, slightly more than 20 per cent are now expecting to see the economy contract in at least one or two quarters.
"The economic malaise that originated in the housing sector during 2006 (and) spread to the financial market in 2007, now appears to be infecting Main Street," the newsletter wrote.
And even as the economy slows, inflation is expected to creep higher.
The majority of those surveyed between February 5 and 6, however, continue to say a recession will be avoided. But growth is going to be weak.
Economists are now projecting the economy will grow by just 1.7 per cent in all of 2008, down from the 2.2 per cent forecast a month ago.
To help avert a recession, Blue Chip economists are expecting the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates. They expect the central bank will reduce its target federal funds rate by at least half a percentage point more this year.
Last month, the Fed cut benchmark interest rates by a sharp 1.25 percentage points in a bold move to support growth as weakness, which was largely contained in the housing market last year, began to spread.
The series of recent cuts took overnight rates, which stood at 5.25 per cent in early September, down to 3 per cent.
There is a possibility that the US economy can go into a recession, theres a possibility it may not.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/4396802a6026.html
Monday, February 11, 2008
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